On April 20, 2025, it marked exactly one year since the fourth Bitcoin halving, a key event in the cryptocurrency ecosystem that reduced the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This event, which occurred at block #840,000, became a significant milestone for Bitcoin and sparked numerous discussions about its impact on the market, miners, and the long-term prospects of the asset.
Halving is a programmed event in the Bitcoin protocol occurring approximately every four years after the mining of every 210,000 blocks. Its goal is to control the emission of new coins, limiting the total supply of Bitcoin to 21 million. Reducing the reward per block slows the creation rate of new BTC, enhancing the asset's scarcity, which, according to Bitcoin's creator Satoshi Nakamoto, contributes to the long-term increase in its value.
The fourth halving, which occurred on April 20, 2024, reduced Bitcoin's daily emission to approximately 450 BTC, corresponding to an annual inflation rate of about 0.85%. This strengthened Bitcoin's position as a low-inflation asset, particularly relevant in times of global economic instability.
For miners, the halving became a serious challenge. The halving of rewards doubled the cost of mining one Bitcoin, which, according to J.P. Morgan analysts, rose to $53,000 after the halving. This forced less efficient mining companies to rethink their strategies, optimize energy consumption, or exit the industry. At the same time, miners in regions with affordable electricity, such as Russia, maintained competitive advantages due to low tariffs.
Transaction fees, accounting for around 20% of miners' revenues in 2024, became a more significant source of profit. According to Glassnode, in 2025, the share of fees in miners' income continues to grow, indicating a gradual shift to a model where transaction fees will dominate after all block rewards are exhausted, expected by 2140.
Historically, halving was accompanied by an increase in Bitcoin's price, although the effect manifested with a 12–18 month delay. After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin displayed a steady upward trend. According to Coinmarketcap, by January 2025, the price reached $105,000, with a historical high on January 20 of about $110,000. Glassnode analysts note similarities in the current cycle to the 2015–2018 period, when Bitcoin's price reached new highs a year after the halving.
Forecasts for 2025 remain optimistic. Bernstein experts predict growth to $172,000 by the end of the year, citing increased institutional interest and the launch of spot ETFs in the US. However, market volatility persists, and short-term corrections, like in April 2024, when the price fell to $63,000, remind of the risks.
The 2024 halving occurred under unique conditions: the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin's integration into financial systems, and increased regulation. This strengthened BTC's position as an