Bitcoin Breaks Away from Nasdaq: A Signal for Investors?
Bitcoin has lost its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index, which may indicate a shift in the market's perception of the asset. On-chain data explains the recent rise and subsequent fall in BTC price, and geopolitical negotiations between the US and China are influencing investor sentiment.
Divergence with Nasdaq and Gold
Bitcoin declined by 2.09% last week according to Coingecko, while gold rose by 4.85% and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.34%. This divergence suggests that the market doesn’t see BTC as either a risky or safe-haven asset. Correlation with the Nasdaq persisted for most of the year but began to breakdown on October 15 at 9:00 UTC: Nasdaq ended the week up 0.44%, while BTC fell 3.71%.
Reasons for Lagging: Liquidations and On-Chain Data
Analysts link this to the crash on October 10, when liquidations exceeded $19 billion, causing market panic. According to CryptoQuant, since August there have been two trends: a decline in USDC inflow to spot exchanges (used for actual purchases) and a rise in USDT inflow to derivatives platforms (for futures collateral). This indicates a decrease in spot demand and an increase in speculative "synthetic" demand via derivatives and ETFs. The crash on October 10 eliminated this pressure, explaining the lack of BTC recovery in tune with Nasdaq.
Geopolitics and Altcoin Recovery
On Sunday, BTC surpassed $108,000 after falling from $122,000 to $100,000, prompted by the escalation of the US-China trade war. Optimism is related to President Trump's statements on 100% tariffs as negotiating tactics and upcoming talks between Secretary of Treasury Besent with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia. This may set the stage for the summit on October 31 in Gyeongju. Despite the BTC decline, altcoins are rising: ETH +5.96%, SOL +7.12%, which confirms market resilience.