Bitcoin (BTC) experienced its most significant weekly drop since late March 2025, losing 4.3% of its value and dropping to $100.9K according to Binance. The primary cause of the drop was the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, spurred by US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil supply. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 9%, reaching $3.12 trillion, a level equivalent to early May. The drop affected not only Bitcoin: about 90 of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by capitalization lost up to 40% of their value, according to Coinmarketcap.
The escalation of conflict between Iran, Israel, and the US triggered a sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. On the night of June 23, the price of Bitcoin fell to $98.4K, the lowest level since early May. Analysts link this to the uncertainty surrounding Iran's possible response to the strikes and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes. "The market still expects a short-lived war," noted the analytical company The Kobeissi Letter in its message on the X platform, pointing to the restrained response of oil markets despite geopolitical risks.
Cosmo Jiang, General Partner of the Pantera Capital crypto fund, believes that after confirmation of US strikes on Iran, cryptocurrency prices have likely reached a local bottom. However, according to Swyftx's lead analyst Pav Hundal, the uncertainty related to the further actions of key players, including US President Donald Trump, remains the main pressure factor on the market. "No one knows what will happen next in the Middle East, and this creates uncertainty that traders hate," emphasized Hundal.
Despite the current volatility, experts remain cautiously optimistic. Pav Hundal noted that easing tensions in the Middle East could lead to investor confidence restoration and price growth. As of 11:30 Moscow time on June 23, Bitcoin quotes recovered to $102K, indicating partial return of buyer interest. Decrypt analysts forecast that in the absence of further conflict escalation, the cryptocurrency market may return to pre-drop levels.
However, Oleg Kalmanovich, the chief analyst at Neomarkets, points to the increased demand for "safe havens" — the dollar, gold, and oil, which limits the short-term growth potential of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, market participants will be closely monitoring macroeconomic data from the US, including inflation and industrial statistics, as well as comments from Federal Reserve representatives. The Fed's tough rhetoric and the maintenance of a high key interest rate may further restrain the recovery of the cryptocurrency market.
Vasily Girya, CEO of GIS Mining, emphasizes that geopolitical instability increases volatility, but does not change Bitcoin's long-term bullish trend, supported by institutional demand. After the April 2024 halving, which reduced miners' rewards, the supply of new coins decreased, historically contributing to price growth. However, the current sell-off highlights that cryptocurrencies remain high-risk assets, especially amid global crises. "Cryptocurrency is an emerging market, and volatility is still part of its nature," noted Hundal.
The short-term forecast for Bitcoin remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks and macroeconomic conditions. If the conflict in the Middle East does not worsen, BTC quotes may return to the $105–108K levels in the coming weeks. However, further escalation or Fed policy tightening may trigger new sell-offs. Investors are recommended to remain cautious, minimize leverage use, and closely follow news related to the conflict and Fed decisions.