This week, Bitcoin came close to its all-time high, recorded on May 22, 2025, at $111,970. From June 9 to 11, the cryptocurrency traded near this level, sparking optimism among investors. However, on June 12, the price started to decline, prompting discussions about a possible end to the bull cycle, which began after the halving in April 2024.
The key reason for the correction is the rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. announced a partial evacuation of embassy staff in Baghdad due to threats related to a potential Israeli operation against Iran. Regulators are concerned about Tehran’s possible retaliatory strikes against American targets in the region, heightening uncertainty in the financial markets. Cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, came under pressure as investors shifted to safer assets like USDT or traditional instruments.
The crypto community is divided. Some analysts believe that the current correction is temporary and that Bitcoin will continue to rise in the medium term. Others warn of the end of the bull market.
Analyst MartyParty claims that geopolitical instability in the long term could benefit Bitcoin. He argues that during periods of uncertainty, investors seek assets to preserve capital, and many turn to cryptocurrencies. After the current dip caused by conflict news, Bitcoin may start an upward movement.
Dennis Porter, CEO and co-founder of Satoshi Action Fund, supports the optimistic view, pointing to Bitcoin’s correlation with global liquidity (M2). He notes that BTC price movements lag the M2 chart by about three months. This implies that increased liquidity driven by central bank actions could support cryptocurrency growth. If this trend continues, Bitcoin is set for further growth.
The recent buyback of U.S. government bonds also supports the positive outlook. Such operations increase liquidity in the banking system, resembling quantitative easing. Historically, this has fostered cryptocurrency growth as excess liquidity often flows into risky assets like Bitcoin.
However, not all analysts share the optimism. Analyst Sensei is convinced that the bull cycle is already over and predicts a bearish market or sideways movement over the next 6–12 months. Trader DoctorProfit indirectly supported this view by announcing in his X the closure of a long position on Bitcoin, opened in April below $80,000.
Despite the correction, some metrics indicate no market overheating. BeInCrypto data shows that Bitcoin’s bullish trend remains strong. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60, which is significantly below overbought levels, indicating potential for further growth if external factors stabilize.
Technical analysis from LiteFinance suggests a possible long entry point at the $78,500 support level, targeting $108,260 with a stop-loss at $75,000. An alternative scenario involves breaking the $95,000 level in June, possibly pushing Bitcoin to $120,000 by September.
Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory will depend on geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors. While Middle East tensions triggered sell-offs, the broader context — including global liquidity growth and institutional investor interest, bolstered by record bond buybacks and ETF inflows — suggests potential for recovery.
Investors should remain cautious, considering the high volatility of the crypto market. Optimists like MartyParty and Porter forecast $120,000-$150,000 tests by year’s end, while pessimists anticipate a drop to $82,000-$85,000 if the $90,000 support breaks.