The digital asset market holds its breath on the verge of fateful events: the US Senate pushes for a compromise to end the record 40-day government shutdown, while Bitcoin (BTC) desperately clings to the psychological mark of $100,000. As of November 10, 2025, the BTC price is $106,000, showing a growth of 3.5-4% for the day. The $100,000 level has been holding since August — over 130 days, but consolidation increases the risk of a breakdown. The outcome of these factors depends not only on investor sentiment but also on the trajectory of the entire crypto market.
Blogger Coin22 conducted an analysis of the current dynamics and forecasted: the coming weeks will bring either a powerful growth impulse amid liquidity recovery or a short-term pullback if catalysts are delayed.
Bitcoin has been holding above $100,000 for over four months, but prolonged consolidation builds pressure: no daily candle closed below, but the RSI indicator signals a neutral zone without signs of mania. The market is split — optimists see the current day as the final bottom before the rally, pessimists fear a bearish reversal. The main catalyst? Political instability in Washington, where the shutdown paralyzes the economy and scares capital away from risky assets like cryptocurrency.
The shutdown, which began on September 30, 2025, has already exceeded 40 days — the longest in US history. It limits the Federal Reserve's access to new data, worsening forecasts and reducing appetite for risk. According to Polymarket estimates, the probability of ending this week is about 46-52%, with a focus on November 12. Democrats propose temporary funding with Obamacare benefits, Republicans want a clean reopening without conditions. Analysts predict a compromise by November 10-15, when the reserves of federal programs run out. Ending the shutdown will free up hundreds of billions of dollars, lower rates, and renewed interest in crypto, emphasizes Coin22.
The publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for November 13, but the shutdown puts it at risk: some Bureau of Labor Statistics employees are on forced leave. These data are critically important for the Fed's policy, the dollar's course, and the trajectory of BTC. Timely release will strengthen signals of stability; a delay will ignite volatility, driving capital into safe-haven assets like gold.
Today, November 10, the pause in the tariff wars expires: the US reduced tariffs from 20% to 10%, China suspended retaliation. An extension (until 2026) will strengthen trust, liquidity inflow, and impetus for risky markets, including crypto. Escalation will ignite inflation, putting pressure on BTC. Coin22 notes: balance here is key to global recovery.
Analyst PlanB, based on the stock-to-flow model, sees BTC in the middle of a cycle: holding above $100,000 for six months is a sign of resilience, with a target above $200,000 and an average of $500,000 by 2028. Arthur Hayes of BitMEX links weakness to a temporary dollar liquidity deficit but predicts "takeoff to the moon" after the shutdown: Treasury spending will add billions, ending the tightening. CryptoQuant records: large holders (whales) purchased ~30,000 BTC ($3 billion) in a week, strengthening support at $100,000.
BTC's share of capitalization fell below 60% — the first sign of rotation into altcoins, but a full "altseason" requires the leader to stabilize. Zcash (ZEC) rose amid regulation debates: investors flee to private tokens under political pressure, although the sector remains speculative and volatile.
The crypto market is in a lull before the storm: shutdown, CPI, and tariffs are triggers for impulse. Whales are accumulating, structure is stable, liquidity is on the way. As Coin22 predicts, the resumption of Fed spending will open the door for growth — from $110,000 for BTC and beyond. Investors should monitor Washington: a compromise here will turn the board.