Bitcoin on the Verge of $100,000: Record November and Signs of Sustainable Growth
Bitcoin is balancing on the edge of a six-digit mark, showing record growth in dollar terms for November 2024. The first cryptocurrency is trading around the $95,100 mark, teasing investors with the proximity of the coveted $100,000.
1-day BTC/USDT chart. Source: Cryptovizor crypto screener Cryptovizor
Record November
Last autumn month brought unprecedented profit in dollar equivalent to Bitcoin owners. Closing the monthly candle at $96,400, Bitcoin set an absolute record for growth in US dollars in a single month. However, percentage-wise, the 37% growth does not reach historical highs.
Monthly Bitcoin returns. Source: CoinGlass
“This is an entirely new situation,” commented Cory Klippsten, CEO of the investment platform Swan Bitcoin, on this record.
Technical Picture and Growth Prospects
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital notes a successful test of the $91,000 support, after which the price bounced 7%. According to him, closing a daily candle above $97,450 could provoke a continuation of the trend and a new attempt to storm $100,000.
1-day BTC/USD chart. Analysis: Rekt Capital
Charles Edwards, founder of the quantitative fund Capriole Investments, emphasizes the uniqueness of the current moment: “In every cycle, we see 4-7 months of insane Bitcoin price growth in the process of searching for a new price. November was the first such month! In the coming months, we expect incredible opportunities for long positions. The public is not ready for this.”
Healthy Market Signs
Popular trader Jelle notes that despite approaching historical highs, funding rates in futures markets remain at moderate levels. According to data from the analytical account Bitcoindata21, this sharply contrasts with the situation in 2021 when indicators were several times higher even at lower prices. Even in March 2024, when Bitcoin set the previous record high at $73,800, funding was significantly higher.
Macroeconomic Background and Key Events
This week, the market's attention is focused on the US job market data before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on December 18. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a 0.25% rate cut is estimated at 61.7%.
Probability of Fed rate change. Source: Fedwatch
Keith Alan from Material Indicators notes: “If Bitcoin’s breakout doesn’t happen before the Fed meeting on December 18, a 25 basis point rate cut will not only be an early Christmas gift but likely a catalyst for breaking the $100,000 mark. On the other hand, the absence of a cut could trigger a correction and sell-off.”
Onchain Analysis Provides Encouraging Signals
The technical analysis is complemented by intriguing signals: the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator has formed the second ‘golden cross’ in the current bull cycle. Analyst Crypto Dan highlights that historically after such a signal, the market shows strong growth within two months.
Bitcoin SOPR Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant
“As the market approaches the late stages of the cycle, the scale of growth tends to increase, while the periods of decline and correction become shorter,” the analyst notes. If the sharp rise suggested by this indicator occurs from late 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, an influx of new funds can be expected to drive the market to peak levels.
As the psychological $100,000 mark approaches, the market shows signs of healthy consolidation, maintaining the potential for further growth. Moderate funding rates combined with technical and onchain signals create a favorable ground for the continuation of the upward trend.