September 11: Judgment Day for Bitcoin? How US Data Will Shake the Crypto Market
Crypto investors have frozen in anticipation of September 11, when key economic reports that can set the direction for Bitcoin and the entire digital assets market will be released in the US. Popular crypto blogger Coin22 noted the indecisive behavior of Bitcoin on the eve of this data in a recent review. We explore how the reports may affect the market and which events to keep on the radar.
Quiet September: Market in Anticipation
The first week of September was quiet for the crypto market: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets traded in narrow ranges, with volumes and activity down. The main reason is the expectation of significant US economic data, including the consumer price index (CPI) for August, which is forecasted to reach 2.9% — the highest since February 2025. Inflation growth, fueled by the Trump administration's tariffs, increases pressure on risky assets, including Bitcoin, as high inflation keeps the Federal Reserve's rates elevated. Weak labor market data (unemployment rising to 4.3% as of September 5) have raised expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy easing, which helped Bitcoin consolidate above $110,000.
Federal Reserve Forecasts: Between Inflation and Employment
The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: support the labor market or contain rising prices. August data showed only 22,000 jobs created (forecast — 75,000), with unemployment rising to 4.3% — the highest in four years. Analysts are divided in their opinions:
Standard Chartered forecasts a 0.5% rate cut.
Bank of America and Berkeley expect gradual easing.
Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank doubt radical measures.
The consensus is that policy easing is inevitable, but the market has already priced in a 0.25% rate cut. Investors should follow these events:
September 11: OPEC report (impact on oil and inflationary expectations), CPI release.
September 12: Data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
September 17: Federal Reserve meeting.
Inflation remains the main risk for Bitcoin, but easing by the Federal Reserve could act as a catalyst for growth.
Bitcoin Dynamics: Consolidation and Growth Signals
Bitcoin is trading in the $107,000–$115,000 range. Over the past month, whales have sold more than 100,000 BTC ($12.7 billion) — the largest sale since July 2022, peaking on September 3 (95,000 BTC in a week). However, funds continue to accumulate Bitcoin, supporting the market. The annual moving average approaches $100,000 and shows growth.
Technical levels:
Support: $109,500–$110,000.
Resistance: $113,000.
Correction zone: $101,600 (38% Fibonacci level).
Growth signals:
Global liquidity: monetary expansion correlates with Bitcoin (>90%).
Stablecoin issuance: increasing USDT/USDC precedes rallies (>95%).
Gold dynamics: correlation >92% with a 10-week lag — a gold breakout may support BTC.
Despite whale sell-offs, fund accumulation and macroeconomic signals indicate growth potential after data release.
Ethereum: Under Pressure
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum shows weakness:
A descending triangle is forming.
Open interest is decreasing.
Outflows from funds are observed.
The key support is $4,200. Breaking this level may send ETH below $4,000.
Ethereum is more vulnerable to macroeconomic risks than Bitcoin and may continue to decline.
Conclusion: Waiting as a Strategy
Bitcoin is likely to remain in consolidation until the CPI publication on September 11 and the Federal Reserve's decision on September 17. These events will determine whether BTC can break the $113,000 resistance or go into a correction to $101,600. As Coin22 notes, the current market indecision is a temporary phenomenon, and the reaction to inflation data will be decisive for short-term dynamics.