Solana Co-Founder Sounds Alarm: Bitcoin Faces Quantum Crisis by 2030
In the face of rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and computing technology, the crypto industry is confronted with a new potential threat: a quantum breakthrough that could undermine Bitcoin's security. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko, at the All-In Summit 2025, urged the Bitcoin community to speed up the transition to post-quantum cryptography, predicting a 50-percent likelihood of significant progress in quantum computing by 2030.
Yakovenko's Prediction: Quantum Leap on the Horizon
At the All-In Summit 2025, Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of the high-performance blockchain Solana, emphasized the urgency of preparing for the quantum era. In a video released on YouTube on September 19, he stated: "In five years, we are likely to face a quantum breakthrough." Based on the rapid convergence of technologies and the swift adoption of artificial intelligence, Yakovenko urged accelerating Bitcoin's transition to quantum-resistant signature schemes to protect private keys from potential attacks.
Bitcoin's security relies on the ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm), which is resistant to classical computer attacks but vulnerable to quantum computing using Shor's algorithm. Cybersecurity expert David Carvalho from Naoris Protocol warned in June that quantum computers might break Bitcoin's cryptography in less than five years.
Bitcoin Community's Reaction: Calm and Skepticism
Part of the Bitcoin community remains calm in the face of the potential threat. Blockstream CEO Adam Back noted that current quantum computers pose no real danger to Bitcoin's cryptography but acknowledged that such a threat may arise in 20 years. "Current quantum technologies cannot attack Bitcoin, but in the future, it will likely become possible," he explained.
Jan3 founder Samson Mow expressed a similar view in a June interview, stating: "The risk is real, but it will likely happen in a decade, and other systems may collapse before Bitcoin." Transitioning to post-quantum cryptography would require a hard fork—a major network update opposed by many developers due to potential risks to stability.
Expert Analysis: Innovations and Security at a Crossroads
Blockchain and mining market analysts note that Yakovenko's warning underscores a systemic challenge for the industry: AI accelerates not only the development of DeFi and NFT but also potential vulnerabilities. Solana, with its Proof-of-History mechanism, demonstrates flexibility that could serve as a benchmark for Bitcoin. However, resistance to a hard fork reflects Bitcoin's philosophy as "digital gold," where stability is valued over the speed of change. If a quantum breakthrough occurs by 2030, it could trigger capital flows into quantum-resistant blockchains like Solana or the updated Ethereum. Experts recommend the community keep track of NIST standards on post-quantum cryptography to develop preventive measures.