Standard Chartered, one of the leading British banks, has published a bold forecast stating that Bitcoin will reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2025 and $200,000 by the end of the year. Bank analysts claim that the traditional halving cycles, which previously determined Bitcoin's price dynamics, are no longer relevant. This forecast is based on new growth drivers such as institutional investments through spot ETFs and corporate reserves.
Geoff Kendrick, the Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated in his report that Bitcoin has moved beyond the usual market dynamics. Previously, after the 2016 and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin's price would drop after 18 months, but in 2025 this scenario, according to the bank, will not repeat. The main reason is the change in market structure: capital inflow through ETFs and corporate purchases create a sustainable upward trend.
"We expect prices to resume an upward trend with support from continued strong ETF purchases and corporate reserves,” Kendrick noted.
Standard Chartered also forecasts long-term growth to $500,000 by 2028, emphasizing confidence in Bitcoin's potential.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have become a key growth factor. In the second quarter of 2025, according to the bank, investments in ETFs and corporate purchases amounted to 245,000 BTC. Kendrick expects this volume to increase in the third and fourth quarters. However, on June 1, 2025, there was a capital outflow from ETFs amounting to $342.2 million, which is 7% of the $4.8 billion inflow over the previous two weeks, according to data from Farside Investors. Despite temporary instability, the bank’s analysts remain optimistic.
The April 2024 halving, which cut miners' rewards in half, became a turning point. If previously the market followed a predictable cycle — growth after the halving and correction after 18 months — now institutional money and corporate reserves have changed the rules of the game. Standard Chartered believes these factors create a new era for Bitcoin, where traditional patterns no longer work.
Despite the optimistic forecast, the bank acknowledges the possibility of short-term volatility at the end of the third — start of the fourth quarter of 2025. The memory of past corrections after the halving may affect investor sentiment. However, the overall bullish trend, supported by institutional interest, remains dominant.
The Standard Chartered forecast highlights the transformation of Bitcoin from an asset dependent on halving cycles to an instrument of institutional investments. If the bank’s expectations are met, Bitcoin could reach new highs as early as 2025, opening a new chapter in cryptocurrency history.