A recent analysis by John Ma, CEO of Artemis, has sparked intense discussions in financial and cryptocurrency circles. According to his forecast, Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, could reach a valuation of $515 billion when going public, placing it at the 19th spot among the world's most valuable companies, surpassing giants like Coca-Cola and Costco. Although Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has ruled out the need for an IPO, the analysis emphasizes the company's growing influence in both the cryptocurrency and traditional financial arenas.
John Ma's valuation model is based on a comparison with Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, which recently became a publicly traded company with a market capitalization of $30 billion. Ma's forecast suggests that by 2025, Circle's EBITDA will reach $410 billion, corresponding to an EBITDA multiplier of 69.3x.
In 2024, Tether reported a net profit of $13 billion, of which $7 billion was earned from U.S. treasury bonds and repo transactions, while $5 billion came from unrealized profits on bitcoins and gold. Ma's model predicts an increase in USDT supply by $50-60 billion in 2025, leading to an average volume of $170 billion. With an average federal funds rate of 4.2%, Tether's EBITDA in 2025 is expected to be about $7.4 billion. Applying Circle's multiplier of 69.3x gives a valuation of $515 billion.
However, Ma notes that using Circle's current multiplier is a bold assumption that may prove unsustainable, highlighting the speculative nature of the calculation. Paolo Ardoino called the valuation 'beautiful' but 'somewhat underestimated,' pointing to Tether's growing reserves in bitcoins (over 100,000 BTC) and gold (50 tons).
Tether, the issuer of USDT, is a key player in the cryptocurrency market. As of June 8, 2025, the market capitalization of USDT is $154.83 billion, making it the third-largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ethereum. USDT is widely used for trading, cross-border transfers, and as a stable store of value. Tether's reserves, including U.S. treasury bonds, bitcoins, and gold, ensure its financial stability.
The company has diversified its products by issuing stablecoins pegged to the euro (EURT), gold (XAUt), the Mexican peso (MXNT), and the offshore Chinese yuan (CNHT). These steps demonstrate Tether's ambition to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market.
Despite the buzz around the $515 billion valuation, Paolo Ardoino stated, 'There is no need to go public,' emphasizing confidence in the company's private structure. This contrasts with Circle's recent IPO via a SPAC deal. Some experts, including Anthony Pompliano and Jack Mallers, believe Tether's valuation could reach $1 trillion due to its financial strength and growing reserves. However, transparency issues and regulatory risks may complicate a potential IPO.
Tether's influence extends beyond stablecoins. The company recently acquired a controlling stake in Twenty-One Capital, a bitcoin asset management firm, and transferred 37,229.69 BTC (valued at $3.9 billion) to addresses associated with a new bitcoin-based financial platform. These steps underline Tether's ambition to integrate cryptocurrencies into the global financial system. Additionally, investments in technology and sustainable development bolster the company's position.
In regions such as Latin America, USDT is becoming a popular medium of exchange and savings. For example, in Bolivia, traders are increasingly using USDT for retail pricing, reflecting stablecoins' growing acceptance in developing countries.
A $515 billion valuation places Tether above Coca-Cola, whose market capitalization is around $188 billion, and enterprise value is $213 billion, and Costco with a similar capitalization. Coca-Cola's brand, valued at $106.45 billion in 2024, remains a symbol of global leadership in the beverage industry, but Tether's potential valuation underscores the revolutionary role of stablecoins in finance.
While the $515 billion valuation is theoretical, it highlights Tether's tremendous impact on both the cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets. The decision to remain a private company allows Tether to scale without the regulatory constraints of public status. Whether Tether can follow Circle's path and become a public company remains an open question, but its financial strength and strategic initiatives make it a key player in the global economy.