Bitcoin's rapid $5,000 drop in a day has shaken the crypto community, and experts are already pointing to a potential further decline to $88,000.
The primary cryptocurrency fell below $96,000, showing a decline of more than 7%. The reason for such a sharp movement is the concerns about the macroeconomic situation in the USA. However, the most interesting part might still be ahead.
1-day BTC/USDT chart. Source: Cryptovizor cryptocurrency screener
The analytical platform CryptoQuant recorded an increase in seller pressure on the Binance exchange. According to the site's expert known as Darkfost, the net sales volume reached a peak of $325 million, the highest level since the beginning of 2025. This spike coincided with the publication of not so favorable data for risky assets on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and a report on job openings in the US labor market (JOLTS).
Trader Skew notes that $95,000 is becoming a decisive level in the short term. At the same time, in the range of $92,000–88,000, there is a significant accumulation of buy orders, which can support the price in case of further decline.
30-minute BTC/USD chart and liquidity data. Analysis: Skew
Trader Johnny, analyzing the 4-hour BTC/USDT perpetual futures chart predicts a drop to the level of $88,000 within the next 2-3 weeks. In his opinion, the inauguration of the newly elected US president could become a classic "sell the news" event, which can put additional downward pressure on the market.
4-hour BTC/USDT chart. Forecast: Johnny
However, not everyone is pessimistic. Analyst Rager believes the current situation is not critical and anticipates a rebound by the weekend. The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, points to a steady demand based on the Apparent Demand indicator. This indicator compares the amount of mined bitcoins with coins that haven’t moved for more than a year, allowing the evaluation of the long-term cryptocurrency accumulation trend.
Bitcoin Apparent Demand Indicator. Source: Ki Young Ju
An additional supporting factor is the rapid decrease in seller liquidity. According to Bitfinex analysts, Bitcoin's liquidity ratio (an indicator of how long the current supply can meet demand on exchanges) fell from 41 months in October 2024 to approximately 6.5 months. Such a squeeze in liquidity creates an asset shortage effect, which historically led to price increases. As pointed out by the exchange's experts, this dynamic matches the rallies observed in the first and fourth quarters of 2024.
Comparison of BTC/USD chart with seller liquidity. Source: Bitfinex